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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Konecny, WJSS, TIFH
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Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Jul 26 @ 4:13 PM ET
There will be a 5-10% drop in tix sales during rebuild years . NHL franchises are heavily dependent on tix sales. Those costs are what I mean are certain.

The upside is a Chicago style run. But it could end up being Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, even Toronto. 0 to marginal playoff success. So the upside is random and those certain costs may not yield certain payoffs.

Sorry if I wasn't clear earlier.

- PT21


That's lost income but I think you really want to talk about the bottom line.

That still makes no sense and I also want to point out we just went from 1%-5% to now 5%-10% after I posted the actual numbers those percentages represent.

I will now explain why. Take Chicago last year. Using the Flyers actual numbers 10% would be around 6.3 mill, agreed? The Blackhawks were 12.2 mill under the salary cap so their was a net gain of 5.9 mill. Profit. A proper rebuild and they saved money. Even this year they are projected at 6.8 mill cap space, still no lost money.

Now that we've established that rebuilds can earn a profit in the short term, let's talk long term.

It's pretty simple, look at the Flyers track record under the salary cap. If you have bad management, the team is going to be bad rebuild or no rebuild no matter how much money you throw at it. On one hand that handicaps the Flyers, the Flyers are conditioned to buy themselves out of problems instead of learning from their mistakes. They haven't rebuilt, ever, fired GM after GM, fired coach after coach.

The Flyers have spent more money on losing teams than pretty much any team in the league, if not for the loyal aging fan base, there might be conversations about whether the Flyers can survive.

Buff and Ott were bad for long periods of time for reasons that had nothing to do with rebuilds and everything to do with Ownership and management.

The Flyers have the resources and loyal fan base to do this right. But they won't ...
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 4:27 PM ET
That's lost income but I think you really want to talk about the bottom line.

That still makes no sense and I also want to point out we just went from 1%-5% to now 5%-10% after I posted the actual numbers those percentages represent.

I will now explain why. Take Chicago last year. Using the Flyers actual numbers 10% would be around 6.3 mill, agreed? The Blackhawks were 12.2 mill under the salary cap so their was a net gain of 5.9 mill. Profit. A proper rebuild and they saved money. Even this year they are projected at 6.8 mill cap space, still no lost money.

Now that we've established that rebuilds can earn a profit in the short term, let's talk long term.

It's pretty simple, look at the Flyers track record under the salary cap. If you have bad management, the team is going to be bad rebuild or no rebuild no matter how much money you throw at it. On one hand that handicaps the Flyers, the Flyers are conditioned to buy themselves out of problems instead of learning from their mistakes. They haven't rebuilt, ever, fired GM after GM, fired coach after coach.

The Flyers have spent more money on losing teams than pretty much any team in the league, if not for the loyal aging fan base, there might be conversations about whether the Flyers can survive.

Buff and Ott were bad for long periods of time for reasons that had nothing to do with rebuilds and everything to do with Ownership and management.

The Flyers have the resources and loyal fan base to do this right. But they won't ...

- Flyers_01


😂

The actual figures are ballpark. We can settle on 5.

You have raised a very nice point. 👍I had not incorporated revenue saved by lower salaries and my argument is definitely weakened.

But my suspicion is that a Chicago style salary floor rebuild would, in the eyes of Flyers brass, destroy brand image. Hence the repeated assurances by Scott that they will be a cap team.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 26 @ 4:28 PM ET
Now, compare to 2012-20 (inclusive), when they were a bubble playoff team. Observe the ~ 7% drop in ave. attendance.

Thats your cost.

- PT21


You're missing part of the premise. The infusion of exciting young talent added to the mix from the "tank". I bet they see a bump this upcoming season just from adding Michkov. Again, add in some young high skilled talent that is fun to watch and this fan base will buy in. No doubt. I don't agree that they will see a huge financial down turn from it.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jul 26 @ 4:41 PM ET
so tk isn't high end talent?
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 4:41 PM ET
You're missing part of the premise. The infusion of exciting young talent added to the mix from the "tank". I bet they see a bump this upcoming season just from adding Michkov. Again, add in some young high skilled talent that is fun to watch and this fan base will buy in. No doubt. I don't agree that they will see a huge financial down turn from it.
- MJL

Michkov is an aberration that was luck. Gauthier/Tippet is probably more representative. How many people will flock to see those type develop versus the thrill of competitive game?

Just look at Chicago numbers. See the drop in attendance from the average of Toews/Kane years to now. Even with Bedard, it is over 10%.

THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Jul 26 @ 4:43 PM ET
Someone needs to buy this team from comcast and get an owner who will actually give a poop about winning a cup and the process it takes to get there and sustain it for a 5 year window.


This rinse and repeat poop is the FLYERS!!!


In short fuuck this team and there 3 headed retaard system. I am done, will only watch highlights.


Officially a Anaheim Ducks fan, at least they will make the hard move to get better and not blow smoke up everyone ass.

- Flyerloon

Hopefully Maga or Apple 🍎
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 26 @ 4:49 PM ET
Michkov is an aberration that was luck. Gauthier/Tippet is probably more representative. How many people will flock to see those type develop versus the thrill of competitive game?

Just look at Chicago numbers. See the drop in attendance from the average of Toews/Kane years to now. Even with Bedard, it is over 10%.

- PT21


It's irrelevant how Michkov was added. They were a top contending team during the hey day with Kane and Toews. Bedard has been there for one season. They were 5th in the league this past season in average home attendance

https://www.hockeydb.com/....php?lid=NHL1927&sid=2024
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Jul 26 @ 4:51 PM ET
this place rules 😂
- anti-lame

And the spectacular Olympic ceremony 🥳
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Jul 26 @ 4:58 PM ET
so tk isn't high end talent?
- 2Real

On this flyer team he is. Hope it will last 🙏 for 9 years!
corduroy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT
Joined: 12.09.2006

Jul 26 @ 5:26 PM ET
On this flyer team he is. Hope it will last 🙏 for 9 years!
- THE EVIL WITHIN


That’s the problem
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 6:25 PM ET
It's irrelevant how Michkov was added. They were a top contending team during the hey day with Kane and Toews. Bedard has been there for one season. They were 5th in the league this past season in average home attendance

https://www.hockeydb.com/....php?lid=NHL1927&sid=2024

- MJL


1. Since we are discussing general strategy, outlying outcomes should not be used. You cannot count on getting a guy like MM if you tank. It may happen but it's not the likely outcome.

2. It is not relevant where Chi ended up in terms of attendance rankings. What matters is the cost (or as Flyer01 pointed out, opportunity cost) of unrealized revenue that could have been obtained by not tanking.

Flyer01 also poked a big hole in my logic simply by paying attention to what I was saying, looking up easily obtained info, and using elementary arithmetic to point out an error. It took him 2 posts.

Ever think of actually substituting economical, effective rebuttals by using your noggin instead of an unending sequence of posts that take issue with what the poster isn't saying? 😁


Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 26 @ 6:41 PM ET
Someone needs to buy this team from comcast and get an owner who will actually give a poop about winning a cup and the process it takes to get there and sustain it for a 5 year window.


This rinse and repeat poop is the FLYERS!!!


In short fuuck this team and there 3 headed retaard system. I am done, will only watch highlights.


Officially a Anaheim Ducks fan, at least they will make the hard move to get better and not blow smoke up everyone ass.

- Flyerloon


100% agree.

Go Utah hockey club. Can’t wait to get season going. I’m a day 1 fan of Utah. I’ll be enjoying cup celebration way before a flyers fan will.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 26 @ 7:02 PM ET
It’s not a rebuild because a team decides to collect draft assets for one particular draft. If that’s it… if that’s what some are selling as a rebuild …just (frank)ing stop…. If they have a plan it sure doesn’t look like ANY rebuild I’ve ever seen… simply because no other fan base I can think of is actually stupid enough to call it that… it’s a half assed effort to remain competitive while they try to add pieces to continue to get better… which again is not a rebuild…. They have chosen to avoid the painful part of ANY rebuild where by a team Chooses to take a step back by moving core pieces, thus effecting a season where by there aren’t competitive…. They have moved guys that Torts didn’t like … they have moved others that sucked….and one that didn’t want to be here…. That’s not a rebuild … so can we dispense with this crap and actually acknowledge the actual moves and not the rhetoric they continue to spew… no fan should be this dumb.
bird_dog_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 07.05.2011

Jul 26 @ 7:36 PM ET
It’s sad I’m already checked out for the upcoming season. Full vote into archery into the fall. The flyers will be an also ran for entertainment.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 26 @ 8:22 PM ET
1. Since we are discussing general strategy, outlying outcomes should not be used. You cannot count on getting a guy like MM if you tank. It may happen but it's not the likely outcome.


- PT21


You're conflating different discussions. The discussion is not general strategy. It's about how financial results from an approach can effect a teams choices in how it operates. You can't count on anything in the draft. The Flyers had the 2nd overall pick in the draft and it didn't pan out. My premise is that fans will pay to see young skilled, talented, exciting players. Likely outcomes from the draft is a different discussion



2. It is not relevant where Chi ended up in terms of attendance rankings. What matters is the cost (or as Flyer01 pointed out, opportunity cost) of unrealized revenue that could have been obtained by not tanking.


- PT21


It's completely relevant to my premise. Chicago went from 20th in the league in home attendance to 5th in the league in home attendance. It's a perfect example of what an exciting young player can do for attendance.





Flyer01 also poked a big hole in my logic simply by paying attention to what I was saying, looking up easily obtained info, and using elementary arithmetic to point out an error. It took him 2 posts.

Ever think of actually substituting economical, effective rebuttals by using your noggin instead of an unending sequence of posts that take issue with what the poster isn't saying? 😁

- PT21


It's well established that when you're proven wrong. Which isn't difficult to do, you resort to insults. It's exactly what you're saying. Which is another of your frequent tactics. I used easily obtained info to support my premise. It was over your head obviously.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 26 @ 8:44 PM ET
It’s sad I’m already checked out for the upcoming season. Full vote into archery into the fall. The flyers will be an also ran for entertainment.
- bird_dog_pa

Keep us safe hero
Don Nachbaur
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.01.2021

Jul 26 @ 9:56 PM ET
It’s sad I’m already checked out for the upcoming season. Full vote into archery into the fall. The flyers will be an also ran for entertainment.
- bird_dog_pa


Way to be a Flyers fan with Michkov coming in! It's funny that all the people that say they are done with the Flyers still find time to come on here every day and complain about them. I am not happy with the TK extension despite being a TK fan. The Coots contract is killing us and the TK one will most likely be a problem as well. It's a business so if people keep going to games, things will never change. I don't agree with it it, but that's how it will be with comcast. I'll be watching the games regardless to see Michkov and all the old fossils we have despite being one of the younger teams in the league.
Quetzalcoatl
Location: Buffalo Sabres / Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 12.02.2009

Jul 26 @ 10:01 PM ET
Way to be a Flyers fan with Michkov coming in! It's funny that all the people that say they are done with the Flyers still find time to come on here every day and complain about them. I am not happy with the TK extension despite being a TK fan. The Coots contract is killing us and the TK one will most likely be a problem as well. It's a business so if people keep going to games, things will never change. I don't agree with it it, but that's how it will be with comcast. I'll be watching the games regardless to see Michkov and all the old fossils we have despite being one of the younger teams in the league.
- Don Nachbaur


You were warned. 😉
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 26 @ 10:05 PM ET
I just realized this Konecny deal is the largest in franchise history.
Don Nachbaur
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.01.2021

Jul 26 @ 10:12 PM ET
You were warned. 😉
- Quetzalcoatl


Lol yea I get it. It sadly is what it is. I like watching hockey and was too young to remember our Cup wins, so I feel the pain. I don't like the direction the Flyers are taking but I understand that it is a business and Comcast will be fine with anything as long as people go to the games. I just don't feel the need to call the DB, Jonesy, the alumni, etc scumbags and other insults as they can only do so much. I still find it comical that people think Clarkie and others have a big influence as senior advisors. Oh well, go Flyers!
Don Nachbaur
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.01.2021

Jul 26 @ 10:14 PM ET
I just realized this Konecny deal is the largest in franchise history.
- MBFlyerfan



Yikes! I like TK but I'd be shocked if we benefit from this deal.
roenick97
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Canada, MI
Joined: 12.23.2006

Jul 26 @ 10:35 PM ET
I just realized this Konecny deal is the largest in franchise history.
- MBFlyerfan

Of course it is…
jimbass1
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: philadelphia, PA
Joined: 10.01.2019

Jul 26 @ 11:17 PM ET
I just want to add this. One problem for the Flyers in this draft.is that they counted on Columbus to allow them to use the 2nd round draft pick they aquired last year in the Ivan trade. Columbus had to tell them right before the draft if they where going to use it. Columbus chose to use i ti this year. I read many draft rumors that the Flyers would trade Florida pick and that 2nd round pick to move up in the draft. Possibly Drafting A higher rated prospect at 12 and possibly taking Jett Luchenko with the later first round pick.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 26 @ 11:19 PM ET
It’s not a rebuild because a team decides to collect draft assets for one particular draft. If that’s it… if that’s what some are selling as a rebuild …just (frank)ing stop…. If they have a plan it sure doesn’t look like ANY rebuild I’ve ever seen… simply because no other fan base I can think of is actually stupid enough to call it that… it’s a half assed effort to remain competitive while they try to add pieces to continue to get better… which again is not a rebuild…. They have chosen to avoid the painful part of ANY rebuild where by a team Chooses to take a step back by moving core pieces, thus effecting a season where by there aren’t competitive…. They have moved guys that Torts didn’t like … they have moved others that sucked….and one that didn’t want to be here…. That’s not a rebuild … so can we dispense with this crap and actually acknowledge the actual moves and not the rhetoric they continue to spew… no fan should be this dumb.
- landros 2


Except that IS exactly what 90 % of flyers fanbase is. Dumb…. And that’s why they fall for it over and over and over again. And cumcast knows it
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 26 @ 11:26 PM ET
Way to be a Flyers fan with Michkov coming in! It's funny that all the people that say they are done with the Flyers still find time to come on here every day and complain about them. I am not happy with the TK extension despite being a TK fan. The Coots contract is killing us and the TK one will most likely be a problem as well. It's a business so if people keep going to games, things will never change. I don't agree with it it, but that's how it will be with comcast. I'll be watching the games regardless to see Michkov and all the old fossils we have despite being one of the younger teams in the league.
- Don Nachbaur

Apathy turned to disappointment turned to disgust
turned to anger. Turned to visceral turned to trolling


Pretty much where any real fan is at with this team.
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